IDXCarbon in Numbers: Growth Rates Against a Small Base

Indonesia's carbon exchange reports impressive growth. It also reports volumes that would be a rounding error in most commodity markets. Both facts are true, and reading only one of them produces bad project planning.

A 118.5% year-on-year increase is real. It took volume from roughly 414,000 tonnes to roughly 904,000 tonnes, representing a doubling from a base that was itself very small.

Two hundred and thirteen transactions across a full year is roughly four per week. That is not a liquid market; it is a functioning venue with occasional use.

IEEFA's observation that only about IDR 1 billion traded between March and September 2025 makes the same point from a different angle, demonstrating that activity is episodic rather than continuous.

Domestic compliance demand is the missing piece. Without an obligation forcing regulated entities to surrender units, purchasing is discretionary, and discretionary purchasing in a market under international scrutiny has been cautious everywhere, not only in Indonesia.

The global picture reinforces this: voluntary retirements worldwide have been flat at roughly 157–182 MtCO2e per year for four consecutive years.

Treat the exchange as a price signal and a future channel, not as a revenue forecast.

A project modelling its revenue on exchange volumes will be disappointed. However, a project modelling its projections on demand driven by compliance, such as SRUK and SRN PPI reporting duties, Article 6 transfers, and Singapore's carbon tax offset allowance, is modelling the part of the market that has a strict obligation behind it.

That distinction matters more than any growth rate.